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Thursday, 28 January 2016

MORE ON THE MYSTERY OF MH 370



                                                                                   




                                        ROTHSCHILDS INHERIT PATENT !!

                                                         
The disappearance of four members of a patent semiconductor travelling on Malaysia Airlines MH370 makes the famous billionaire Jacob Rothschild the sole owner of a very important patent.


                                                   



                                   MALAYSIAN AIRFLIGHT 370  (Wiki)


                                                             






                                                       

Tuesday, 26 January 2016

ON THE STATISTICS OF CONSPIRACIES




                                                                             

                                                      Credit: George Hodan/ Public Domain



                                          STUDY BY DR. DAVID GRIMES


                                         ON THE VIABILITY OF CONSPIRATORIAL BELIEFS

                                                                 By David Robert Grimes

                                         CONSPIRACY THEORY POLL RESULTS
                                     

THE TRIUMVIRATE A sonnet composed by Thomas Hoskyns Leonard


                                                          THE TRIUMVIRATE

                                                    by Thomas Hoskyns Leonard


                                                            


                                                                          



                                                                         

                         THOMAS

                         Wherefore today, old man, so goggle-eyed,                                  
                         To Three Bridges, Queen's Head, or Goblin Haw?                   

                         OLD TOM

                         I wish to Gifford you would give me ride,                                    
                         Though I still splutter and my chest is sore.                                  


                         SCOTT

                          Remember to change yer troos, you old fart,                                
                          Wash yer dishes, and scrub the bathroom floor.


                          OLD TOM

                          But I must my group Facebook page restart,
                          Work on my blog, put Chess.Com to the fore.


                          THOMAS;

                           Your mind parts from your body, like a bore;
                           Tendresse hides, while you as Narcissus play.


                           OLD TOM:

                           My empathy lies in my gut, Igor;
                           My memories seek for some sunny day


                            SCOTT:

                            This from a poet, writer in his way;
                            Let him fight the fight and the dragons slay.



                                                         
                 


 

                       

Monday, 25 January 2016

PICTURES OF THOMAS'S DOGS



                                                               











TOM DOG



Thomas 

EISENHOWER WARNS OF MISPLACED POWER OF MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX


 

                                                                                       



                                                     EISENHOWER 1961 SPEECH (video)



                                                    DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER WIKI


                                                THE INDUSTRIAL-MILITARY COMPLEX, WIKI


                                                                           




                      EXCERPT (C) FROM THE GRAND OLIGARCHS OF QINSATORIX



                                                                               



                   THE MEDICAL-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX AND THE EUGENICS CONSORTIUM




                                                                               






EXCERPT (C) FROM THE GRAND OLIGARCHS OF QINSATORIX

   
                                       THE GRAND OLIGARCHS OF QINSATORIX


                                                   by Thomas Hoskyns Leonard

                                                    
                                                  PRELIMINARY DRAFT VERSION

                                                                   EXCERPT (C)


                                                                         





Adam was still wiping the smile off his face, when Lord Trithagoras rose to his feet.

“Thank you for that heavenly gem, Princess Natasha,” said the High Head Hin, grinning like a Cheshire cat. “It could have come from straight out of the eye of the Oracle of Cyclopsenese herself. We next defer once again to your eternal wisdom by begging you to read us your proposed revised version of The Top Secret Creed of the Oligarchs, while I sprinkle the Holy Water.”

The Princess Natasha stood promptly up, unfurled a sheet of yellow parchment, and read in a shrill voice:

1. We, the noble fifteen, the courageous Knights of Galahad, rooted in Madron and Nineveh, are not here to subvert the decisions of our democratically elected Planet Parliament, but rather to secretively enhance them.

2. By protecting the vested interests of the broad-sense aristocracy, we ensure the stability of our society at large down to the sixth generation.

3. By enhancing Capitalism, we ensure that a vast majority of the co-operative plebeians in the proletariat have the ways and means to maintain their humble life-styles.

4. By enforcing global security, we protect our populations against the animalistic savages, savage animals, terrorists, anarchists, morons, paupers, heretics, homeless travellers, substance abusers, unco-operative intellectuals, Pelimodes, Spherical Splinemen, Apollo frogs, Trinkon lovers, Despoilers of the Orchadeus, and all other sexual and spiritual deviants and predators who destabilise the lives of our hard working Nestorian Christian families.

5. By covertly financing various global and interstellar military operations we give invaluable assistance to our armanents industry, enhance commercial trade, and support the interests of the God-serving Interstellar Eugenics Consortium.

6. By supporting Grossen Pharma and the chemical industries we catalyse the biochemicalisation and subordination of vast swathes of our populations, lest senseless creativity should subsume the stabilising influences of our totalitarian bureaucracies.

7. By creating a steady stream of 'ripples from above', we seek to confuse and frighten all egocentric and subversive elements of our Society who run counter to our ideals, and to create a mutually destructive feeling of group paranoia among them.

8. By seeking interstellar co-operation with the secular and religious authorities on Planet Remus and Planet Earth, we seek to enhance the quality of life of co-operative humanoids and sub-humanoids throughout the known parallel Universes.
9.We come in the name of the one true Messiah himself, with all his physical forms, and in His Holy Name will we live and die.

10. We shall each recite the Blessing of the Saintly Mother Ophelia at sunrise each and every day: 'God bless Qinsatorix, God bless Britain, and may the assorted nefarious rebels, she-devils of South Artica, and sea monsters of Oceania be stricken by thunderbolts from on high and by flesh devouring insectoids from below.'



        Perchance my sister's taking the proverbial piss again, pondered Prince Adam, as several drops of Holy Water landed on his face.

Sunday, 24 January 2016

TODAY AT ST.ANDREW'S AND ST.GEORGE'S CHURCH WEST, EDINBURGH

                                                                                 
                                       

 Luke, Chapter 4, verses 17-19


And the scroll of the Prophet Isaiah was given to Him, He unrolled the scroll and found the place where it was written:

       'The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, 
       because he has anointed me
       to bring good news to the poor,
       He has sent me to proclaim release to the  captives
       and recovery of sight to the blind 
       to let the oppressed go free,
       to proclaim the year of the Lord's favour.'


       What more can be said? Those with ears to hear let them hear. Those with brains in their
       head, let them understand


                                                                                 








I have tasted You, and I hunger and thirst after You. You have touched me, and I have burned for Your peace.

- St Augustine of Hippo, Confessions



Thursday, 21 January 2016

TO RUSSIA WITH LOVE



                                                                                           



I am delighted by the hundreds of page views I'm receiving from Russia each week. Would any of my Russian fans like to contact me in a comment, so that I can get a better idea of my readership?



                                                                     


                                                                                 

Latest News from MENTAL HEALTH DISCUSSIONS EDINBURGH

                                                                                        
               



                                                MENTAL HEALTH DISCUSSIONS EDINBURGH


                                                                                         
             

                                                      

Wednesday, 20 January 2016

A PASTORAL DIALOGUE, a sonnet by James L.S. Carter

  
                                                         A PASTORAL DIALOGUE

                                                                by James L.S. Carter

                                              

                                                                                    



                                              NOMEA
                                              Oh you don't live, eat, sleep well everyday
                                              ! Reform yourself !   ! Corydon's son, begin !

                                              THEOGNIS
                                              Nomea, I support you in all you say,
                                              In all you do: in that I little sin.

                                              NOMEA
                                              For my and your health you care not a pin,
                                              Theognis. Come now.  ! Carefully confer !
                  
                                             THEOGNIS
                                              I know that I am fat and you are thin.
                                              In my support for you I maybe err.

                                              NOMEA
                                              I shall not live long son. I do aver
                                              Survival brief my future life awaits.

                                              THEOGNIS
                                               Say not I'll lose Nomea, lose not her
                                               Else also I shall end in desperate straights.

                                               AESOP
                                               Theognis lazy indifference creates
                                               His wife's, mother's, father's fates.



                                              Copyright James L.S. Carter  January 2016, Edinburgh
  

                   
                                        

                                            

                                             

                                            







Tuesday, 19 January 2016

JAPANESE ART IN EDINBURGH


                                                                             


                                                    The Victor Morita Art Trust  *****


                                                                      


                                                       Trust Achievements



                                                                     


                                                       The Friends of Morita


                                                                            


                                                        Morita Art and Craft


                                                                            



                                                          Current Progress


                                                                           


***** The pictures in this blog post are taken from the Internet, rather than the private Morita collection





Saturday, 16 January 2016

GARY KASPAROV, Chess Champion and Inspiring Man of Intellect


                                                                                        




                                                      GARY KASPAROV   Wiki



                                                                          


                                                          HOME  PAGE


                                                                                  


                                                      THE CHESS GAMES OF GARY KASPAROV



                                                                                       
                                                
                                                           CHESS CORNER


                                                                             


                                                        THE MAN WHO WOULD BE KING


                                                                    


                                                       INTERVIEW: PUTIN NEED WARS


                                                       LIFE'S WORK (Interview)


                                                       NEXT MOVE?  (Smithsonian.com)

A FRIENDLY WRITERS CLUB IN LEITH, EDINBURGH

                                                                   
                                                                                      
                                                                               

                            EDINBURGH ALL-COMERS WRITERS CLUB (Website)

                We meet at 7pm every Tuesday in the backroom of Sofi's Bar in Leith, Please
                bring eight copies of up to six pages of your work to read and discuss.


                                                                     


                           PLEASE CONTACT US ON FACEBOOK


                          LINKS TO SOME OF OUR WRITERS AND POETS


                          AN ANTHOLOGY OF SCOTTISH CONSCIOUSNESS

                             A collection of poems composed by the Leith Walk Rhymers


                         

Celtic Prayers for Joy

                                                                              




A Celtic Prayer on Joy


As the hand is made for holding and the eye for seeing,
You have fashioned me for joy.
Share with me the vision that finds that joy every...where.
In the wild violet’s beauty;
In the lark’s melody;
In the face of a steadfast man;
In a child’s smile;
In a mother’s love;
In the purity of Jesus.




A Maclean, Hebridean Altars, Moray Press, Edinburgh, 1937
Modified


                                                                             

n                                               IRISH BLESSINGS AND PRAYERS


                                           MORE IRISH BLESSINGS AND PRAYERS

Thursday, 14 January 2016

Excerpt (B) from THE GRAND OLIGARCHS OF QINSATORIX






                                                                         




                                 CHAPTER 2: THE OLIGARCHS MEET IN COUNCIL

                                 Copyright: Thomas Hoskyns Leonard    January 2016

                                           PRELIMINARY DRAFT VERSION



Princess Natasha was awoken the next morning by her Trinkon slave boy when he came gingerly into her bedchamber with a mug of bongvole bovril and three poached ostrolight eggs.

“Throw that grease-ridden tray over the piano, slave-runt,”she commanded, “and how many rioters and terrorists did the Praetorian Guard leave for dead on the palace lawns yesterday?”

When the slave got rid of the breakfast tray it crashed into a dusty framed portrait of the British ambassador which was leaning against the wall.

“Only thirteen, Sister Natasha,” he replied, quite forlornly. “The Daily Inquisitor reports that the soldiers showed considerable constraint and expressed a modicum of sympathy for the victims.”

Good,---hummmm--- Osamu. You may advise the Vestal Virgins to bring my Robes of State.”

Yes, Sister Natasha,” replied Osamu Mangasarian, more assertively. “Three bags full, Sister Natasha. And one for the little chump who starves down the lane.”

Funny ha ha!

How empathetic of me, mused Natasha, to acknowledge the little runt's Christian name. It was fun watching my narcissistic twin brother putting him through his paces on the patio yesterday afternoon though. And didn't I have a superb time in the steam room and the St. Margo of Mystique Chamber later? Oh happy, happy, days!


Prince Adam of Eden was at his most excited, and feeling young for his age, later that morning, when he met with an august group of VIPs in the Lotus Room. Princess Natasha was among the last to arrive, flourishing a hippo-horse whip and hauling her husband Prince Hamlet along behind her on a chain attached to his metal-studded leather dog collar. When she sat down on the Peacock Throne, the determined-looking young man dutifully knelt at her feet and squashed a couple of roaches with his bare hands.

“Sock it to them, Hammy!” yelled Adam, only to be gently cuffed in the ear by his Aunt Ophelia.

Hamlet was muscular and bare-chested with ruffled raven hair, and he was scantily dressed in a ragged grey kilt and wooden Dutch clogs. In contrast, Natasha was attired in flowing silver robes and a sapphire-ridden gold headpiece inset with three red reinmooses' antlers.

A human beefeater with a gap in his teeth knocked on the door with a mace and, after being bidden to enter by the princess, announced, “Your Imperial Highness, I address you as the Chair Wizard of this esteemed Council of State. The Grand High Yin requests your permission to enter and lead the meeting.”

“So granted,” replied the princess, swishing Prince Hamlet's scar-ridden back with her whip.

Prince Adam gasped when the cat-like felixian Trithagoras Tullius Cicero strode into the room bearing the red boxes of office and sat himself down on the Yin's High Chair at the far end of the Oval Table of Caliburn. He looks as if he's running the show, thought Adam.

“Your Imperial Highnesses and esteemed colleagues,” announced Lord Trithagoras. “We all sadly grieve for Felixius, the courageous Republican leader, and for the thirteen Citizens of Qinsatorix who perished in such noble causes in Trivoli yesterday afternoon.”

“May they rest in peace and rise in glory,” cried Prince Caleb of Trystonia, to fairly general murmurings of approval. Adam endeavoured to restrain himself from hissing.

“Perhaps we could initiate the proceedings by inducting three new members into our Grand Oligarchy,” continued Trithagoras. “Would the Prince Consort, the Prince Infanta, and Professor Angervast Friedman-Kissinger please approach the Imperial Throne so that they may be put to everlasting endurement by the Sacred Blessing of Nebbararthurius? I also call upon the Prince Imperial to bring forth the Dagger of Galahad with his hand on its resistant brand and hand it to our much revered Chair Wizard, the Goddess of the Antlers.”

Prince Hamlet of Denmark didn't have far to go. When he swivelled around on his knees,

                                        







STATISTICS IN SPORT


                                                                                



                            BAYESIAN PREDICTION OF FOOTBALL RESULTS

                                                      by Jean-Louis Foulley


Journal de la Société Française de Statistique
,
Vol. 156
No. 2 38-50
http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal
© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238


Journal de la Société Française de Statistique
,
Vol. 156
No. 2 38-50
http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal
© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238






                                                                         


             

Jean-Louis FOULLEY


to me
Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.


                            ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY EDINBURGH (26th January 2016)


Tuesday 26th January 2016 "RSS Young Statisticians' Section (YSS) Event:"
Statistics for soccer matches prediction
Speaker: Dr. Robert Mastrodomenico
Affiliation: Global Sports Statistics, also RSS Honorary officer for Membership

Time of the talk: 6:20 - 7pm (wine reception from 5.30 - 6:20pm)
Venue: International Centre for Mathematical Sciences Edinburgh (ICMS)
Address: 15 South College Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9AA
Registration here.This is a free event open to everyone. Your registration would be useful for the organisers to know how many people are likely to attend, so please complete the registration below. Thanks!
Abstract: The increased data in sports has provided statisticians with the tools to build models of sporting events. This talk will look to show how data from soccer matches can be used to create models with the ability to predict upcoming matches. Starting from a very simple approach we will show how a modified Poisson approach is able to characterise the dynamics of the beautiful game. Following from the model definition we fit it on data from England and show how the output can be used in predicting games from the English Premier League.

Rob as RSS Honorary officer for Membership, will also discuss the merits of being a member drawing on my experiences from being involved with RSS young statisticians' section (YSS) and Council


From Jean-Louis FOULLEY


to me
Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.

The paper by Baio and Blangiardo advocates the use of Poisson models for the numbers of goals scored by the 2 competing teams.

It is good model. I already used for the 2012 Euro that took place in Poland and Ukraine but taking into account in addition the correlation between the attack and defence abilities of a team (what they propose in the discussion at the bottom of page 10).

Predictions are usually easier for championships than for tournaments due to a balance design applied  to championships. It would be interesting to see what this model is doing in tournaments such as UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cups.

My approach is basically different in the sense that I updated information concerning the parameters of the model from one year to the next and I also take into account external information on team results in other competitions. 



                            A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF
                            FOOTBALL RESULTS

                                          by   Gianluca Baio  and Marta A. Blangiardo


                                                                             



Baio, GBlangiardo, M(2010) Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results. Journal of Applied Statistics , 37 (2) 253 - 264. 


                            PROBABILITY AND RISK: THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTING
                            FOOTBALL RESULTS

                                                                by Norman Fenton


                                                                                 

 


                            STATISTICS IN SPORTS: AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION


                                                                               


                           ARTICLE IN THE ECONOMIST



                                                                               


                           STATISTICS IN SPORTS AND HEALTH (UCL)


                           YOUTH SPORTS STATISTICS


                           STATISTICS AT DCMS


                           ARTICLE IN SIAM