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Thursday, 30 June 2016

MONJU-YA GENROKU YOSHIWARA, A poem for gay people by James L.S. Carter




                                                     


                 
                                                    MONJU-YA GENROKU YOSHIWARA ****

                                                                     by James L.S. Carter



                                                    Wagtailing thro' back alleys to get there,

                                                    The errant Rose-gang Ronin's deviant course

                                                     Fails to alarm the rumour of his force;                               ;

                                                     The thrill of evening lanterns whiffs the air,

                                                     The mistress banters while the beauties mute

                                                      Stand in a line, w' empty thoughts in mind:

                                                      Faces you want to penetrate behind,

                                                      Buy and possess the one you find most cute.

                                                      The kettle boils, and clogs are doffed at doors

                                                      Sliding apart. Hot water is prepared;

                                                      Kimonos are removed, and bodies bared.

                                                      Bathed, the wakashu crouches on all fours.

                                                      The ripples of the froth, The whole scene seems

                                                      One long sick dream where are no dreams.
                                                   




                ****  The name of a shop where in the Edo period (1603-1868 ) of Japanese history clients could purchase the services of wakashu (male rent boys)

                                                                           



James's poem was published on page 14 of the Second Annual  James Kirkup Poetry Competition Anthology  in 2011, by Red Square Press, James won second prize in this prestigious competition, He is one of the finest of Scottish classical poets







CHILDREN BECOME POLITICIANS IN THE VILLAGE OF THE DAMNED




                                                                                   

Wednesday, 29 June 2016

ON BREXIT AND THE RENAMING OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS



                                                                 







Brexit: "Bayesian" statistics renamed "Laplacian" statistics

June 27, 2016
By 
(This article was originally published at Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, and syndicated atStatsBlogs.) 
With the U.K. leaving the E.U., it's time for "Bayesian" to exit its titular role and be replaced by "Laplacian".  

;-) 

Various historians (e.g., Dale, 1999; McGrayne, 2011; as cited in DBDA2E) have argued that despite Bayes and Price having published the basic formula first, it was Laplace who did all the heavy lifting to develop the methods. Laplace was French, while Bayes and Price were English. 

On the other hand, Bayes did attend the University of Edinburgh, and lived around London, so maybe he would have voted to stay!

This humorous implication of Brexit was suggested by a participant at a workshop I presented in St. Gallen, Switzerland, last week, after I briefly described the history above and showed the book photographed at Bayes' tomb and at Laplace's memorial. I have forgotten who it was that made the joke. If the originator of the joke is reading this, please put a comment below or send me an email!







On the other hand, Bayes did attend the University of Edinburgh, and lived around London, so maybe he would have voted to stay! (Diego Andres Perez Ruiz)

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Comments
Thomas Leonard So it should be. Whatever the origins of Bayes Theorem (and it certainly wasn't Bayes or Price) Pierre-Simon de Laplace was the founding father of Bayesian Statistics.
LikeReply24 hrsEdited
Michele Guindani ISLA sounds better than ISBA
UnlikeReply21 hr
Also, conditional Laplacian approximations provide a sound basis for much of marginal inference. As Blaise Pascal and Pierre Fermat invoked changing subjective probabilities during the seventeen century (see my Personal History of Bayesian Statistics) I have often wondered whether one of them (e.g. Pascal) first discovered Bayes Theorem, I anyway regard the false celebration of Thomas Bayes and Richard Price as an English plot to take due credit away from the French
LikeReply4 mins
Thomas Leonard
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Sunday, 26 June 2016

A NEW SCOTTISH ENLIGHTENMENT?


                                                                             


                                         NOW IS THE HOUR THAT MAKETH SCOTLAND




                                                                                 



                                    THE SCOTTISH ENLIGHTENMENT (EDUCATION SCOTLAND)





                                                                           


                                                          BBC



                                       



                                                BRITANNICA

THOMAS'S DRIVE TO GLENSHEE




                                                                                     



Amazing and reflective drive up.
I detoured via the mountains of Glenshee and right into the heart of the Cairngorms, much deeper then I'd been before. 
So many valleys and scree hills, ox-bow lakes and glens. 
The road snaked and wound around the bottom of many valleys like itself was a stream. 
I stopped briefly at Glenshee Ski Centre, where I had thick lentil soup, tea and a chicken piece.

I set off again on a downward slope of a road that seemed to roll on for ever and ever! 
Each meander of this road revealed new scenery that makes your heart skip a beat.
The sides of the road are marked with tall red and white stripy poles. These mark the road when it's covered in snow.
Some of the peaks had snow on them.

The weather on the summits was a mixture of brilliant sunshine, fork lightning and snow, all at once! It was crazy!

Driving through the thickets of trees and forests, I stopped a few times to listen to the sound of absolute silence. If I strained, I could probably hear the trees growing!

So that was my journey northbound towards rural Aberdeenshire!



                                                           

   
                                       GLENSHEE SKI CENTRE



                                                                          



                                        GLENSHEE (Wiki)




                                                                       
https://www.visitscotland.com/info/see-do/glenshee-ski-centre-p990451
                                                  

Saturday, 25 June 2016

PLEASE HELP US TO PETITION FOR A SECOND EUROPEAN REFERENDUM





                                                             



                                               PLEASE SIGN AND SHARE





  We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum

                   2185785  signatures so far!!

BORIS THE BAD


                                                                             




                                                          SHAME ON YOU, BORIS



                                                           BBC INTERVIEW




                                                                                 




                                                          BORIS DENIES HE CONCEDED DEFEAT


                                                           BORIS JOHNSON (Wiki)


Johnson is a controversial figure in British politics and journalism. Supporters have praised him as an entertaining, humorous, and popular figure with appeal beyond traditional Conservative voters. Critics have accused him of laziness and dishonesty, using racist and homophobic language, and elitism. The author of various books, he is also the subject of several biographies and a number of fictionalised portrayals.




                                                                             





                                                                             


                                BORIS IN ANGRY CONFRONTATION WITH CAGE DIRECTOR



                                                       



            WAS BORIS RIGHT TO APOLOGIZE FOR HIS CRASS BEHEADING COMMENTS?


                                                                 



















JUAN CARLOS MARTINEZ-OVANDO, BAYESIAN STATISTICIAN





                                                                     



                        JUAN CARLOS MARTINEZ-OVANDO




I am a Bayesian Statistician and Data Scientist passionate about dealing and solving real life problems using data analytics and statistical methods. I have experience working in public and private sector in areas related to the Social Sciences.
Currently, I work at the Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance at ITAM as a Full Time Professor; this is the link to my [official website] In this other [link] you will find a description of my professional and academic experience, as well.
I am particularly interested in studying different aspects of the Bayesian paradigm to inference involved with nonparametric methodstime-series analysishighly-structured modellingactuarial statisticsoperational risksquantitative risk assessmentmacroeconometrics and predictive analytics. I am also interested in topics related to the visualization of complex data and thescalability of stochastic computational procedures.

                                       


                                                                       PUBLICATIONS



                                                 



                                        WEBSITE



                                       SAVAGE AWARD (2012)


                                      Juan Carlos received the prestigious Leonard J.Savage Award in 2012,

            for his truly outstandin g PH.D, thesis,


                                      "Contributions to Bayesian nonparametric modeling of time series data'"


          which was completed in 2011 under the supervision of Professor Stephen Walker at the University of Kent in Canterbury, My own main contribution to this area is described in my paper 'Density Estimation, Stochastic Processes, and Prior Information' (JRSSB, 1978, with discussion). That certainly dates me!




                                      BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN ASSET ALLOCATION (VIDEO)

Friday, 24 June 2016

BRITISH STATISTICIANS

                                                         


                                                   BRITISH STATISTICIANS  (Wiki)





                                                  ENGLISH STATISTICIANS (Wiki)



Thursday, 23 June 2016

May the good Lord be with all of us



       This is a key moment in British history, which changes everything, May the good Lord be with all of us

Tuesday, 21 June 2016

INSURRECTION FRANCAIS 2016: VIVE LA FRANCE !!!

                                                                                     


                                                                                     



    


                                                     BLOCK EVERYTHING (Amateur Video)




                                                                           


                                                                             


                                                        SOON WE WILL BE MILLIONS




                                                                           


                                                             NOTES ON THE MOVEMENT



                                                                           


                                                        CLASHES AT GENERAL STRIKE IN PARIS